Posted 2012-August-16, 18:42
I think I am reading responder's bids slightly differently.
3♣ is natural, showing extras.
4♠ is picture - denying controls in the red suits but extra length or strength in ♠.
I suspect partnerholds something like AKJxxx(x)-a-b-AKxx. If so the question comes down to whether we can hold trumps to one loser. That seems to be a touch more than 42% (1/2 of 84% plus the stiff trump queen on side). Marshall Miles used to say that bid any slam that is at worst on a finesse. This one is worse than that.
If partner has a black 4-loser, shame on him or her for not opening 2♣. Partner should not be, say, AKQxxx xx x AKxx.<-- Not relevant.
With a black 6=5 or 7=5, I would expect partner to rebid 4♣ over 3♦, not 4♠.
So I pass, but it is close.
Edited to correct errors - Steve
Misread auction and responded to nonexistent post.
After 4th suit, jump to game in ♠ must be weak (fast arrival). No way my covers are enough for safety even at 5 level.
(Thanks Aguahombre)
Be the partner you want to play with.
Trust demands integrity, balance and collaboration.
District 11
Unit 124
Steve Moese