[CSGibson]

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This hand came up in a bidding practice, I thought it would make an interesting play problem in 7♣.

How do you want to play this on the lead of a small club (clubs break 3-1, LHO having 3).

If it matters, in the auction you (south) have shown an 18-19 NT with 3 aces and a good club suit. North has shown 4-4 majors, confirmed all the aces, and raised 6♣ to 7 after making an artificial bid to figure out if you were min or max (you said max). Opps silent throughout.



If you want to test spades at some point...

Spoiler

if you test spades, LHO has 1, RHO 6

If you want to test hearts at some point...

Spoiler

if you test hearts, LHO has 5 to the Q, RHO 2

[gnasher]

I'd cash four rounds of trumps, throwing a diamond. If that didn't tell me anything useful, I'd unblock ♦A, try to ruff down ♥Q, then cash the last trump. That works when ♥Q is doubleton or trebleton, either hand has ♦Q and four spades, or LHO has ♥Q and four spades.

[lowerline]

CSGibson, on 2012-June-25, 23:47, said:

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This hand came up in a bidding practice, I thought it would make an interesting play problem in 7♣.

How do you want to play this on the lead of a small club (clubs break 3-1, LHO having 3).

If it matters, in the auction you (south) have shown an 18-19 NT with 3 aces and a good club suit. North has shown 4-4 majors, confirmed all the aces, and raised 6♣ to 7 after making an artificial bid to figure out if you were min or max (you said max). Opps silent throughout.



If you want to test spades at some point...

Spoiler

if you test spades, LHO has 1, RHO 6

If you want to test hearts at some point...

Spoiler

if you test hearts, LHO has 5 to the Q, RHO 2

Simple line: heart finesse

There might be a heart/spade or a heart/diamond squeeze against East, but you won't be able to tell... Only the triple squeeze is automatic. That's just a matter of playing out the clubs.

[Cyberyeti]

lowerline, on 2012-June-26, 04:59, said:

Simple line: heart finesse

There might be a heart/spade or a heart/diamond squeeze against East, but you won't be able to tell... Only the triple squeeze is automatic. That's just a matter of playing out the clubs.

So you want to play a line that's a stiff Q offside better than 50/50 rather than:

3/14 of the 6/1 breaks (stiff 10 can give you marked ruffing finesse one way) + 2/7 of the 5/2 breaks + 3/7 of the 4-3 breaks without the squeeze possibilities

3/7 x 62.17 = 26.64
2/7 x 30.52 = 8.72
3/14 x 6.78 = 1.45

so this is a touch under 37%. Of the remaining 63% of the time, the hand with 4 spades will have K♦ a fraction under 50% of the time so say add another 30%, add a bit more for LHO having Q♥ and 4 spades and the squeeze lines (which are automatic, you're always discarding J♥ on the last club unless it's a winner) must be 70% plus.

[gszes]

gnasher, on 2012-June-26, 01:43, said:

I'd cash four rounds of trumps, throwing a diamond. If that didn't tell me anything useful, I'd unblock ♦A, try to ruff down ♥Q, then cash the last trump. That works when ♥Q is doubleton or trebleton, either hand has ♦Q and four spades, or LHO has ♥Q and four spades.

who wants to ever take a finesse when squeezes like this might be present ----exactamundo