[quiddity]

jogs, on 2012-April-29, 17:52, said:

In the example board it was possible to increase the tricks
by three by just exchanging a few kings and queens.
Would North bid differently from the original North hand?

Of course North would bid differently. His partner invited him to bid on and he has KQx of trumps and a side-suit ace and nothing in the opponent's suit.

[gnasher]

jogs, on 2012-April-29, 17:52, said:

Exchange the kings and queens between North and East.
...
The patterns and total trumps are unchanged. The total tricks
increase from 17(7+10) to 20(9+11).

In your layout EW make only eight tricks in 4♥, not nine.

[phil_20686]

jogs, on 2012-April-29, 17:52, said:

In the example board it was possible to increase the tricks
by three by just exchanging a few kings and queens.
Would North bid differently from the original North hand?

Yes, that is why a number of good players bid 5c. On this occasion they did badly and fred did well.

What point are you making?

[jogs]

gnasher, on 2012-April-30, 01:11, said:

In your layout EW make only eight tricks in 4♥, not nine.

You're right EW makes only eight tricks in 4♠.
No matter how many times the post is reviewed it
is difficult to edit out all errors.

[jogs]

phil_20686, on 2012-April-30, 05:51, said:

Yes, that is why a number of good players bid 5c. On this occasion they did badly and fred did well.

What point are you making?

The correct bid isn't black and white. It is more like
rock, paper, scissors. We choose rock because we think
partner is more likely to have scissors than paper. The
fact that partner has paper this time doesn't necessarily
mean our choice has negative expected value. Considering
the previous bidding is the frequency of paper or scissors
higher? If only one of North's three prime cards were in
our rounded suits(we are 6-6), 5♣ would not have been
a fatal choice.