[lmilne]

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If you would prefer to have bid the first time, please comment, but this problem is also interesting I think.
Your opponents are experts.

[32519]

lmilne, on 2012-April-09, 02:30, said:

---

If you would prefer to have bid the first time, please comment, but this problem is also interesting I think.
Your opponents are experts.

From the bidding, what does North know about the South hand?
1. South must be void in ♠
2. South bid 4♥ on his own, implying either
a. A big hand
b. A highly distributional hand
c. Both?

Despite the vulnerability, West bid the ♠ game (♠ save?). West isn’t expecting to go more than 1 down. My guess is that West has a distributional hand. North needs to figure out what Wests other suit is. Holding ♦QJ108, Wests second suit must be ♣.

Punting 5♥ making = 450. 4♠X down 1 = 200. From what I learnt from the bidding, punting 5♥ should score better.

[pooltuna]

IMO risk/reward seems to favor defense

[the_clown]

I would X. Maybe we can force declarer in ♥. Of course it could end up badly if partner has good ♦ and they have a double fit, but if partner has a stiff ♦ and ♣ values, bidding may convert +800 into -100/300.

[lalldonn]

RHO has 5 spades and I have 5 spades. He will have to ruff a heart and then I will have more spades than he does. I double.

[phil_20686]

Feels like I should crunch this. I will look stupid if dummy turns out to have the heart shortage though.

Pass is probably fine too. But I think thats my fear talking.

[lalldonn]

I don't expect this to be an auction where declarer has the heart length because we never really showed a big heart fit. Partner can just be on his own with 7 hearts and I have 1 or 0, so I don't think he would be bidding 4♠ on the basis of three little hearts here. But, I've been wrong before!

[32519]

I’m still playing West for a black 2-suiter. At these colours he would be silly to bid 4♠ expecting to go more than 1 down. If he does and regularly makes these sorts of bids, it won’t be long before West is dumped by his partner.

Now look at the North hand again. You have two prime honours in the suit partner bid to game on his own. Add to that:
1. South is surely void in ♠
2. North has a doubleton ♣, therefore losing only 2 tricks in the suit.

I still think North should punt 5♥ based on the bidding.

[Flameous]

32519

You are missing the point that if he expected to go down only one or more likely make, he didn't expect 5-0 trump break and that kind of thing happens to change the trick expectations quite dramatically.

Really bidding here winning 450 against 200 is such a small goal that I really wouldn't aim for that when I can easily force declarer and get 500 or 800.

Also one thing to note here is that W didn't bid Michael's or any other two-suited call. This might be due holding such a strong spades but could also be because being three suited.

[Phil]

Flameous, on 2012-April-11, 04:49, said:

32519

You are missing the point that if he expected to go down only one or more likely make, he didn't expect 5-0 trump break and that kind of thing happens to change the trick expectations quite dramatically.

Really bidding here winning 450 against 200 is such a small goal that I really wouldn't aim for that when I can easily force declarer and get 500 or 800.

Also one thing to note here is that W didn't bid Michael's or any other two-suited call. This might be due holding such a strong spades but could also be because being three suited.

LOL, exactly. Furthermore, its partner that might have hearts + clubs, and RHO has spades + diamonds.

4♠ is going down. Possibly a lot. You cannot pass up these kinds of opportunities.

[neilkaz]

I also double and the really big payoffs come when 5♥ doesn't make. I can't imagine 4♠X making after a force.

[gszes]

lmilne, on 2012-April-09, 02:30, said:

---

If you would prefer to have bid the first time, please comment, but this problem is also interesting I think.
Your opponents are experts.

Am I that big a wusss????????????????????

P had plenty of ways to show a strong hand but chose to bid 4h---I think this
is based on a highly distributional and not so strong hand. Something like:

void AQTxxxxx Kx QJx

even with 5 spades there is no guarantee 4s will go down. I have to
admit I would bid 5h not because I am convinced it will make but because
I am deeply concerned 4s will make.

[32519]

Flameous, on 2012-April-11, 04:49, said:

32519

You are missing the point that if he expected to go down only one or more likely make, he didn't expect 5-0 trump break and that kind of thing happens to change the trick expectations quite dramatically.

Really bidding here winning 450 against 200 is such a small goal that I really wouldn't aim for that when I can easily force declarer and get 500 or 800.

Also one thing to note here is that W didn't bid Michael's or any other two-suited call. This might be due holding such a strong spades but could also be because being three suited.

OK, fine. So how much did E/W go down in the end? This thread was started for a reason. Did N/S gain:
1. +200?
2. +450?
3. +500?
4. +800?
5. Or did N/S lose when 4♠X made?

[han]

I need better spots before I double 4S.

[32519]

The posts in this thread have received a lot of up-votes. Can we put the arguments to bed by posting the actual hands plus the actual result?

lmilne: This is your thread. Kindly do the honours by posting the actual hands (all 4 of them) plus the actual result.

Thank you.

[Phil]

32519, on 2012-April-14, 07:59, said:

The posts in this thread have received a lot of up-votes. Can we put the arguments to bed by posting the actual hands plus the actual result?

Does the actual hand really matter?

[32519]

Phil, on 2012-April-14, 08:02, said:

Does the actual hand really matter?

There are differing arguments on the hand and the continuation bidding. How else can you determine whose argument was better?

lmilne posted this for a reason. Let's find out what the reason is.

[aguahombre]

32519, on 2012-April-14, 08:40, said:

There are differing arguments on the hand and the continuation bidding. How else can you determine whose argument was better?

An argument is better when:

a) On a given hand, the choice would have been successful.

b) A particular poster says it is.

c) It works better within certain people's agreements.

d) none of the above.

[32519]

aguahombre, on 2012-April-14, 09:24, said:

An argument is better when:

a) On a given hand, the choice would have been successful.

b) A particular poster says it is.

c) It works better within certain people's agreements.

d) none of the above.

This is meaningless. Read my signature.

[nigel_k]

32519, on 2012-April-14, 08:40, said:

There are differing arguments on the hand and the continuation bidding. How else can you determine whose argument was better?

lmilne posted this for a reason. Let's find out what the reason is.

If you think that the choice supported by the best arguments is always the same as the choice that worked at the table, I have some sad news for you.