[Hanoi5]

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Is 4♣ ok, or too much?

Imp pairs.

[BunnyGo]

Hanoi5, on 2012-March-18, 08:42, said:

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Is 4♣ ok, or too much?

Imp pairs.

I think this'll be a unanimous pass. Passed hand partner, no great shape, and it's not clear what game the opponents can make. Let them have their partscore.

[ArtK78]

If partner were not a passed hand, this would be an interesting problem. Even 3♠ could be right.

But with partner a passed hand, this is a clear pass.

[HighLow21]

This hand stinks. Pass and lead K♠ hoping to take 5 tricks on defense.

[aguahombre]

Partner does not have good shape either. At best you will find her with 4-5 in the blacks and a ten count. Much more likely is a plain old 4-4

She had at least two other ways to show the blacks and more distribution as a passed hand, and didn't use them. Let it go.

[Codo]

I guess, I would bid 4 ♣ with an unpassed partner, but surely not now.

[Hanoi5]

You're almost sure to have a 9-card fit in clubs. You have excellent cards in partner's second suit. I agree that partner being a passed hand doesn't really seem like a good idea, but I thought the vulnerability was fine. Partner's hand:

♠ATxx
♥Qxx
♦x
♣KT98x

Opps probably got you then, for they both strained their values:

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So I bet you'd go down one if you start with the ♣A or just make if you believe them to be point-counters.

[HighLow21]

Hanoi5, on 2012-March-19, 08:18, said:

So I bet you'd go down one if you start with the ♣A or just make if you believe them to be point-counters.

If you bid 4♣ making here, it is among the luckiest makes I've ever seen.

• If the defense is best and starts with AK♥, A♦, and another heart, you are down as of trick 4.
  
• A♦ followed by AK♥ and another diamond could potentially make you guess clubs. The only reason the guess doesn't materialize is that East has QJ♣ which won't happen most of the time to any length.
  
• If the defenders cash A♦ then exit in spades you must guess the clubs, and advocates of restricted choice will get it wrong most of the time (on the auction, East is likely to be shorter in clubs, so the best play is A♣ and a finesse, losing a trump trick correctly.)
  
• You are guaranteed to go down if either defender has QJx(x) in clubs, which will happen almost half the time. It just so happens not to be here.
  
• There are plenty of layouts with these cards where either 3♦ makes and 4♣ is (doubled) down 2, or neither contract makes.

Thus all in all, 4♣ is a horrendous bid and the contract just happens to make ONLY IF declarer play is perfect and the defense isn't; and if you never bid it, you will gain a lot of IMPs in the long run.

[rmnka447]

Partner has no less than an 8 loser hand. You have an 8 loser hand. So you rate to take no more than 8 tricks on most hands.

A clear pass.