[Fluffy]

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♦A lead

[inquiry]

Fluffy, on 2012-March-08, 08:40, said:

♦A lead

West seems to be at least 5♠ and 6♦, leaving him with at most two cards between hearts and clubs. You can not deal with EAST having ♣KJ8x, as you would have two club losers plus the spade ace, so WEST needs at least one club.

It Is not an easy to know how to play the hand. IF west is 5=1=6=1, you can always make by ruffing diamond in dummy and running club queen then if that loses, the ten. If west is 5=0=7=1 you can't afford to lose to a singleton king (or you have to use only one round of trumps, then finesee east for the heart jack before playing on clubs again.

And then there is if west is 5=0=6=2 where as long as you don't lose two clubs to KJ doubleton, you are home. It seems any line you choose has some risk. and I can't figure out off the top of my head which is most likely. But i am going with ♣Q from dummy at trick two (after I RUFF) and finesse again next. I pay off to kj with west and west being 5=0=7=1 with stiff king (I will make if he has stiff jack or small stiff).

[nigel_k]

I don't think you can make at all if West has a small singleton club and the AQ of spades.

♣A works if West has stiff K. Running the queen works if West has stiff J or Jx, and also when East has KJx and the queen of spades. So I would run the queen.

[gnasher]

I don't think we need worry about ♣KJ on the left. With 3442 and a low doubleton club, RHO would probably have competed to 5♦.

After diamond ruff, ♣Q losing to the king, diamond ruff, ♣10 with West showing out, you have to choose between layouts like

AQxxx J AKQxxx K opposite xxx xxx 10xxx Jxx

and

AQxxx - AK109xxx K opposite xxx Jxxx Qxx Jxx

Either of these layouts looks possible. At unfavourable vulnerability, RHO probably wouldn't act on either.

On a 5071 LHO might have had another go, but he'd done quite a lot already, and he does have some defence. With the example above, it's reasonable to pass it around to East. On the other hand, if LHO had ♦Q as well he would bid again, or would have done more earlier.

There are a priori probabilities to consider too: a 5161 is 13 times as likely as a 5071; a 5161 with ♥J is still 3 times more likely than 5071.

I draw a third trump.

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2012-March-09, 02:28

[Fluffy]

LHO had 5161 with ♣K, as long as you don´t play ♣A you are gome.