[Cyberyeti]

7♠ teams, small heart lead, plan the play, not sure of the percentages in the club suit here when combined with 3-1/2-2 spade breaks.

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[Mbodell]

Cyberyeti, on 2011-November-20, 16:11, said:

7♠ teams, small heart lead, plan the play, not sure of the percentages in the club suit here when combined with 3-1/2-2 spade breaks.

Line 1:
♥A, ruff ♦, ruff♣, ruff ♦, ruff ♣, ruff ♦, ruff ♣ high, cash top 2 trump, run club from top (if the ♣K falls on first two rounds switch to line 2)

Line 2:
♥A, ruff ♦, ruff♣, ruff ♦, ruff ♣, cash top 3 trump, run club from top

Line 1 wins if clubs are 4-3 either way with either player having the K, but only if spades are 2-2. Line 1 also wins if clubs are 5-2 either way with the K in the 2, and spades are 2-2 or 3-1.

Line 2 wins if clubs are 4-3 with the K in the short side if spades are 2-2 or 3-1. Line 2 also wins if clubs are 5-2 either way with the K in the 2, and spades are 2-2 or 3-1.

What is more likely, clubs 4-3 with the K in the long side and spades 2-2 or clubs 4-3 with the K in the short side and spades 3-1?

A Q&D calculation would be 4/7 * 40 = 22.9 versus 3/7 * 50 = 21.42 which suggests line 1 is slightly better.

Of course, I think you might be able to combine some of both lines by cashing the ♣A first.

Line 3:
♥A, ruff ♦, ♣A, ruff ♣ (if the K falls now, know to ruff the next club high and then pull trump - unless both K and T fell, then we pull trump now and even pick up 4-0 trumps), ruff ♦, ruff ♣ (if K falls now pull trump), ruff ♥, ruff ♣ high, pull trumps run clubs.

I think this gives us our best chance.

You don't have enough tricks to cross ruff the hand without a non-A winning a trick, and that is either the ♥Q, at best 50% and likely much less given the lead or the ♣Q but the ♣Q ruffed good will be near impossible to score without them ruffing, and a ruffing finesse will also lead to ruin the cross ruff as we'll get out ruffed.

[mikeh]

I think we absolutely have to play a trump to hand at trick 2. Any line that sets out by proposing to ruff red cards twice will fail on 4-0 trumps.

So trump to hand. I will assume both opps follow.

Thereafter, there are, it seems to me, 3 alternatives.

1 and 2 are equivalent.

1. ruff a club, ruff a red card, ruff a club, pull trump. Wins on any trump layout (note assumption above) so long as clubs are 3-3 or the K drops doubleton....note that if the K drops doubleton, we stop ruffing right now...P T & C.

2. ruff a club, ruff a red card, ruff a club, ruff a red card, ruff a club with the J, and ruff another red card with our penultimate trump and claim if trump were 2-2.

These are equivalent because they play the same until we are in dummy after the second club ruff. At that stage, we are missing 2 cards in each black suit. If spades are 1-1, which is slightly over 50%, then we are cold by continuing to cross ruff. If clubs are 1-1, we are cold by pulling trump. The odds that clubs are 1-1 is the same as for trump to be 1-1. If both are 1-1, both work. If neither are 1-1, both fail.

3. Draw two rounds of trump. If the suit is 2-2, play club A and ruff a club, then ruff a red card and ruff a club. We need 3-3 clubs or the K to appear on round 2.

if trump are 1-3, then lead the club Q for a ruffing finesse....do not cash the A first.

if trump are 3-1, play the club A then ruff low then back to hand with a ruff then the club Q for the ruffing finesse.

I can't do the math to determine which line is best...I think they are very close...as I said, I think 1 and 2 are identical.

My gut says to adopt line 3.

[nige1]

Cyberyeti asks "7♠ teams, small heart lead, plan the play, not sure of the percentages in the club suit here when combined with 3-1/2-2 spade breaks."

Guessing:
- ♥A, ♠A (to check on ♠ split). ♣A, ruff a ♣.
- If ♣K not doubleton, then ruff a ♦, ruff a ♣.
- If ♣K hasn't appeared, then you need ♠2-2, therefore, ruff a ♥, ruff a ♣, ruff a ♦, draw last trump.

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[Cyberyeti]

Line 3 trump to hand, club ruff, diamond ruff, run Q♣ unless K or 10 dropped from RHO. If 10 dropped, you have to guess whether this is something sneaky from K10x or 10x or is K10 double. If Q♣ holds, ruff a club high.

[MrAce]

Mbodell, on 2011-November-20, 17:30, said:

Line 1:
♥A, ruff ♦, ruff♣, ruff ♦, ruff ♣, ruff ♦, ruff ♣ high, cash top 2 trump, run club from top (if the ♣K falls on first two rounds switch to line 2)

Line 2:
♥A, ruff ♦, ruff♣, ruff ♦, ruff ♣, cash top 3 trump, run club from top

Line 1 wins if clubs are 4-3 either way with either player having the K, but only if spades are 2-2. Line 1 also wins if clubs are 5-2 either way with the K in the 2, and spades are 2-2 or 3-1.

Line 2 wins if clubs are 4-3 with the K in the short side if spades are 2-2 or 3-1. Line 2 also wins if clubs are 5-2 either way with the K in the 2, and spades are 2-2 or 3-1.

What is more likely, clubs 4-3 with the K in the long side and spades 2-2 or clubs 4-3 with the K in the short side and spades 3-1?

A Q&D calculation would be 4/7 * 40 = 22.9 versus 3/7 * 50 = 21.42 which suggests line 1 is slightly better.

Of course, I think you might be able to combine some of both lines by cashing the ♣A first.

Line 3:
♥A, ruff ♦, ♣A, ruff ♣ (if the K falls now, know to ruff the next club high and then pull trump - unless both K and T fell, then we pull trump now and even pick up 4-0 trumps), ruff ♦, ruff ♣ (if K falls now pull trump), ruff ♥, ruff ♣ high, pull trumps run clubs.

I think this gives us our best chance.

You don't have enough tricks to cross ruff the hand without a non-A winning a trick, and that is either the ♥Q, at best 50% and likely much less given the lead or the ♣Q but the ♣Q ruffed good will be near impossible to score without them ruffing, and a ruffing finesse will also lead to ruin the cross ruff as we'll get out ruffed.

I think you are mistaken, opponents do not have 7 cards ♣. We do.

[rhm]

T1:♥A
T2:♠A

If ♠ are 4-0 take the ruffing finesse in ♣. If RHO has 4♠s you can ruff another club with the ♠J thereafter, by coming to hand with the ♠9

Assuming both follow to the first round of trumps:

T3:♣A
T4:♣Q ruffed, but LHO might erroneously cover from ♣KTxx

If ♣king appeared:

T5: ♠K
T6: ♣ruff with ♠J

red suit ruff, draw trumps

If ♣king did not appear:

cross-ruff until ♣king appears.

This line wins:

When LHO has ♣Kxxx, Kxx or Kx and RHO has four 4♠s.
When LHO has ♣ Kxx and 4♠s
When either opponent has ♣Kx or ♣Kxx and trumps are not 4-0
When RHO has ♣Kxxx and trumps are 2-2

If my calculations are correct this line succeeds about 56% of the time (plus the chance that LHO may cover the ♣Q.

Rainer Herrmann