[inquiry]

Perhaps this is interesting, perhaps not. I was wondering who might consider alternative plays to the obvious line and explain why they picked them.

Opening lead ♠5

T1. S to ACE
T2. S9 which holds, dummy discard heart. East ♠2
T3 S8 dummy lets go heart, east ♠6
T4-5 ♣AQ, both follow
T6-7: ♣ KJT, east ♥679 West ♦235

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Current position is

Ok, at matchpoints you gain two extra tricks if diamond king is onside. If diamond king is offside, you go down if you take the diamond finesse. East clearly has ♠QT left, and west a small spade. East has thrown 3 hearts and kept diamonds. West has thrown 3 diamonds and kept hearts. East discarded hearts without apparent concern.

Do you lead the diamond JACK and run it here, and would your play be the same at imps as matchpoints on this hand?

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[rogerclee]

The short version is that you should definitely play the heart Q right now against "typical" opponents.

Long version:

If east is 5422 with the DK then this was a normal way to pitch for both opponents.
If east is 5422 without the DK and with a heart honor, then this was not a normal way to pitch, he would let go of a diamond and 2 hearts.
If east is 5422 without the DK and without a heart honor, then most people would let go of 2 hearts and 1 diamond, but we're not 100%.
If east is 5332 with the DK then this is not a normal way to pitch (most people would let go of 2 hearts and 1 diamond).
If east is 5332 without the DK then this is not a normal way to pitch (most people would pitch a diamond).

If east is 5512 then this is a normal way to pitch, but then someone might have bid something, and this shape is not as likely to start with anyway.

If he is 5422 with the DK and Kxxx of hearts, then he could either pitch a spade a heart or a diamond. To me it is not human to pitch 3 hearts stiffing the HK, he would be much more inclined to stiff the diamond with only 1 pitch. He might also have let go of a spade, but that is a weak play, though it's also very normal-looking to the average bridge player.

With the DK and Jxxx of hearts this is exactly how he would pitch, so we play for that. To me there are only two reasonably likely hands for east that are relevant, QTxxx Jxxx Kx xx and QTxxx xxxx xx xx (we can't make if he has QTxxx xxxx Kx xx, but this hand is also possible), and of those two hands, the first is much much more likely.

A more subjective question is how good of a player can east be until this analysis does not hold. IMO there are very few people you should not play the HQ against.

[dellache]

50/50 between ♥Q and ♦finesse.
Why ?

1. Let's suppose first that South had the ♥J instead of the 10.

Let's suppose that the Kings are split (East might have bid 1♠ with both, and the deal is over if West has both).
The situation should be clear for the opponents, but anyway this is usually what the "honest" ones do :
- they don't bare their Kings ;
- they keep as many cards as possible in their pard's suit, "in order not to give the show away".

So in that case, I guess that :
- west would keep (Spade) (Kx) (xx) [any king]
- East would keep (QT) (Kx) (x) [the other king]

East King is in the suit where there are the most cards remaining, whatever each player does indiviually.
In that case East has kept the Diamond King, and I would finesse the ♥K.

2. What happens when we don't have the ♥J ?

a- If East has the HJ, the same reasoning applies and actually, East will bare this Jack hoping West has the ♥Ace (actually he was triple squeezed)
Thus we can play the HQ. We have 4x6 = 24 cases where it works (West had ♥Kx, and East had ♦Kx initially).
What do wo loose if EW are "honest" ?
-o- The ♥K might have been stiff all the time : 6 cases.
-o- West had Axxx x Kxxxxx xx (no 2♦ opening ? No michael by East ?) : 24 cases.
We have to interpret the "non-bidding", to decide the likeliness of this 4162//5512 distribution.

b- If West has the HJ, the reasoning may still apply, except that we cannot "finesse" Hearts conveniently. The relevant case is Axxx KJ Kxxxx xx by West and we have to interpret the "non-opening" 3rd to speak. That's 21 cases.

Even if we interpret the "honest" discards correctly, the choice of abandonning the Diamond finesse is NOT that clear.
I think it is very close between ♥Q and ♦Finesse.

Would like to be at the table.

[FrancesHinden]

Why is everyone so certain that spades are 5-4, rather than 6-3. The carding indicates 6-3, although the auction may make that slightly less likely.

[rduran1216]

with the knowledge that E has pitched down to Q10 spade, Kx diamond, and some other card, we can only hope to pin the jack of hearts

This is a play by default, if West has K of diamonds, u got wamboozled, stuff happens, if everything was in tempo it was a great play by both.

[inquiry]

This hand is from an online ACBL event that I was commenting on to one of the players (student).

I agree with the concept that it is highly likely that East has ♦Kx, and leading the ♥queen to try to smother a hypothetical jack is the best play at imps. In fact, for those interested, it was the winning play at the table. I would judge someone who found this play -- instead of the diamond finesse -- to at least a thinking player (diamond finesse seems "automatic" for a non-thinker). I thought most might not find it, so that playing this line would be a near top, and not playing it would be about average. Turns out, down one (diamond finesse) was only 36%. The reason why ending up being poor defense. Some people won ♠A and shifted to a diamond (!) a few blocked the spade suit when West returned ♠4 at trick two and East won the ten and continued the queen, or east won the ten and shifted, then a large group made after a spade-spade-spade and then East threw a spade on the run of the clubs. There was a large group, including the student, who got the defense shown. Everyone of them took the diamond finesse and went down. I liked the hand in part because as noted above East was squeezed in three suits...

[rogerclee]

inquiry, on 2011-January-30, 01:45, said:

I would judge someone who found this play -- instead of the diamond finesse -- to at least a thinking player (diamond finesse seems "automatic" for a non-thinker).

Bridge is easier to think about when you are given a problem and can think things over, especially when the alternative seems so intuitive/routine. To me a play like the ♥Q now at the table is too much to ask a non-expert bridge player to find. It's part of most people's routines to think about if they can endplay someone in this position, but it's not part of most people's routines to think if someone has been guard squeezed.

Also I'm not sure I follow your logic dellache, it sounded to me like you wrote a lot of words that argued for banging down the ♥Q, and then concluded that it was a guess.