[MFA]

Scoring: IMP

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1♣(15+ precision) - (1♠) - X(GF bal) - (2♠)
pass - (3♠) - 3NT - all pass

I feel like spanking myself, so here is a game I butchered the other day.
3♠X looked like it probably would have been a zillion down when dummy hit, but instead of that bonanza I had bid myself to a wrong-sided 3NT.

Lead ♠7.

They lead: xx, Hx, xxx, Hxx.

[gnasher]

It looks like a guess: play LHO for ♦A by playing ♠Q and holding up, or play LHO for ♠H87 by playing low and winning the first spade. The former seems more likely - if RHO is 5-5 he doesn't need ♦A.

[cherdanno]

gnasher, on May 13 2010, 06:31 PM, said:

It looks like a guess: play LHO for ♦A by playing ♠Q and holding up, or play LHO for ♠H87 by playing low and winning the first spade. The former seems more likely - if RHO is 5-5 he doesn't need ♦A.

♠Q also wins when LHO has ♠A87.

[dellache]

I'd play the Queen.
If LHO had ♠(Q/J)87, and East the ♦Ace, too bad, but I feel it is more likely that West has one of the pointed Aces, and one of the 3 possible 7xx. Difficult to infer something from this wild interference anyway (where are the 2♠/3♠ coming from ?)

[MFA]

dellache, on May 14 2010, 09:03 AM, said:

Difficult to infer something from this wild interference anyway (where are the 2♠/3♠ coming from ?)

People tend to bid their head off against precision. NV vs VUL. Anything goes.

[rhm]

Assuming West has not led the ♠ 7 from JT7 you can not make if East has both aces.
Otherwise, assuming ♦ come in for 3 tricks, you can not loose by playing the queen of ♠ on the first trick and holding up your king of ♠, whether the queen holds or not.

Rainer Herrmann

[dellache]

rhm, on May 14 2010, 09:54 AM, said:

Assuming West has not led the  ♠ 7 from JT7 you can  not make if East has both aces.

Not true.
If East has A(J/T)xx to West (J/T)87, you make by playing low from dummy even if East has the ♦Ace (blocking the Spade suit).

[rhm]

dellache, on May 14 2010, 05:20 AM, said:

rhm, on May 14 2010, 09:54 AM, said:

Assuming West has not led the  ♠ 7 from JT7 you can  not make if East has both aces.

Not true.
If East has A(J/T)xx to West (J/T)87, you make by playing low from dummy even if East has the ♦Ace (blocking the Spade suit).

Correct.

Rainer Herrmann

[Phil]

cherdanno, on May 13 2010, 06:39 PM, said:

gnasher, on May 13 2010, 06:31 PM, said:

It looks like a guess: play LHO for ♦A by playing ♠Q and holding up, or play LHO for ♠H87 by playing low and winning the first spade.  The former seems more likely - if RHO is 5-5 he doesn't need ♦A.

♠Q also wins when LHO has ♠A87.

So if the ♠Q wins, RHO wins the A♦ and puts the ♠J/T on the table, you are....

[MFA]

Yes, it's a guess in spades, but one still has to play for the best chance, as always. What annoyed me about this one was not taking what I think is the wrong line, but that I didn't realize the odds.

At least I can see I have company. I chose to rise Queen and was quickly down when east had ♠ATxxx and ♦A.

Why don't I like my line?
If I had to make a guess, I would say that east is a favourite to hold the ♦A. No guarantees but a favourite.

If I play ♠Q, I win if east has ♠AJT8x and west ♦A (3 cases - there are 3 small x'es) or if east has ♠JT543 and ♦A. In total 4 cases.

If I play low I win if east has ♠A(J/T)543 regardless of the ♦A position. That can be calculated as 2*2 = 4 cases.

So it's 4-4, but then I much prefer to play for the layouts where east is the one with the aces.

I was basically just judging that ♠7 was just more likely to be a high one, so I should play queen. But that's an illusion. I think it's 'close but clear' to play small at trick 1.

[MFA]

Phil, on May 14 2010, 06:00 PM, said:

cherdanno, on May 13 2010, 06:39 PM, said:

gnasher, on May 13 2010, 06:31 PM, said:

It looks like a guess: play LHO for ♦A by playing ♠Q and holding up, or play LHO for ♠H87 by playing low and winning the first spade.  The former seems more likely - if RHO is 5-5 he doesn't need ♦A.

♠Q also wins when LHO has ♠A87.

So if the ♠Q wins, RHO wins the A♦ and puts the ♠J/T on the table, you are....

... accepting to be grosvenored if that is my destiny.

[dellache]

MFA, on May 14 2010, 04:10 PM, said:

If I had to make a guess, I would say that east is a favourite to hold the ♦A. No guarantees but a favourite.

If I play ♠Q, I win if east has ♠AJT8x and west ♦A (3 cases - there are 3 small x'es) or if east has ♠JT543 and ♦A. In total 4 cases.

If I play low I win if east has ♠A(J/T)543 regardless of the ♦A position. That can be calculated as 2*2 = 4 cases.

So it's 4-4, but then I much prefer to play for the layouts where east is the one with the aces.

I don't see why East ought to have the ♦Ace a tad more than West : as you said before, EW went wild on the strong club, so anyway East HCP count means nothing.

OTOH, there are 2 other factors that make the ♦Ace more likely in the West hand :
-vacant places : 10 VP (West) Versus 8 VP (East), that's a 11% difference in favour of West having the Diamond Ace ;
- East "might" have bid 3♠ because of extra shape : it also increases the probability (VP again) of West having the crucial Ace.

So what is more relevant : vacant places (I think so) or the fact that we may think that East would not Dare to bid 1S/3S with less than 8 HCP ?

Cheers,