[shevek]

Here's your hand:

♠T6  ♥J98632  ♦43  ♣KQ9

Favourable vul at IMPs, partner opens 1♥, pass to you.

1♥ is 11-15, 4+♥s, denies 4♠s, could be canape.
3♥ would be shapely but not crap.
(If you wish to bid spades, it has to be 2♠, since 1♠ is relay) Well, I guess you could psyche the relay if prepared to live with the consequences.

A few thoughts ...
4♥ seems more attractive here than in Standard because strong clubbers are known to game raise with good hands, which might intimidate the 4th player.
On the other hand, this feels like a hand where they will make whatever they bid. If so, the higher you bid, the better their chances.

If you bid 4♥, will you dive over 4♠? Or over Dbl - no - 4♠?
If you'd rather divert, what do you think gives the best chance to avoid -620?
Would your strategy change at nil vul?

[maggieb]

This is a great hand to be playing this system on, so I think I will use it to my advantage and bid 4♥ right away.

[effervesce]

4♥. The opps haven't bid yet, and the higher you go the less likely they will as it is less likely the opps on borderline hands will stick their heads out the higher the level.

[helene_t]

Yeah 4♥ and no further action needed. They might not bid 4♠. They might bid it and go down.

[hrothgar]

I would bid

3N = ~20% of the time
4♥ = ~40% of the time
5♥ = ~40% of the time

[gwnn]

richard are you adding all your cards value (2=2, 3=3, J=11, etc) and decide as a function of the last digit or are you using some more random source?

if I calculate correctly the last digit is a 5 so I think that means you also bid 4♥

[maggieb]

hrothgar, on Oct 26 2009, 08:46 AM, said:

I would bid

3N = ~20% of the time
4♥ = ~40% of the time
5♥ = ~40% of the time

Mixed strategies only work when two of your strategies aren't completely terrible.

[hrothgar]

maggieb, on Oct 26 2009, 05:37 PM, said:

hrothgar, on Oct 26 2009, 08:46 AM, said:

I would bid

3N = ~20% of the time
4♥ = ~40% of the time
5♥ = ~40% of the time

Mixed strategies only work when two of your strategies aren't completely terrible.

I assume that you are insinuating that 3N and 5♥ are terrible calls...

We're white and they're red... 3NT often works out wonderfully on these hands, especially is RHO is prone to hitch.

In a similar vein, I have no desire to sell out to 4♠ when the opponents are guarunteed an 8+ card fit and heart shortage. I should probably weight 5♥ more heavily...

[Jlall]

4H

[jdonn]

4♥. I can't fathom why I would want to do more if partner can have a four card suit. I wouldn't bid 5♥ either now or next round with Tx J98xx xx KQ9x if playing a standard system, so what is the difference?

If I was going to psych it would clearly be with 2♠, especially given that partner denied four of them.

Richard I think despite your arguments for 5♥, you might want to replace it altogether in your strategy with 2♠. And then weight it less heavily.

Edit: Rob's post below is very good, even to the point that I think it would be bad to bid anything but 4♥ at all.

[rbforster]

hrothgar, on Oct 26 2009, 11:17 AM, said:

In a similar vein, I have no desire to sell out to 4♠ when the opponents are guarunteed an 8+ card fit and heart shortage. I should probably weight 5♥ more heavily...

Let me offer the alternative side to only bidding 4♥ (rather than more or other psychs). Yes they have a spade fit, but

- there's no guarantee they can make game on power. We've got 17-21 of the hcp
- Note all the missing heart honors. Opps are very likely to have bad holdings like stiff K or Qx that might make them less likely to bid on over 4♥ (than they would with say a small stiff)
- our KQx♣ is a very defensive holding, and is most of our strength

In fact, we might not even make 4♥ being so flat, so our "save" might be only against 3♠ making in which case offering up 5♥X seems like a bad gamble.

- we have no shortness, so aside from spades, it's not likely as they'll have a ton of shape and it's less likely we can make game
- law level for our 10 card fit seems fine

[akhare]

Color me a boring 4♥ -- hand too balanced to consider an advance 5♥ sack. If LHO confidently bids 4♠ and pard doesn't X, I might reconsider...

[nigel_k]

Bid 4♥ and pass if they bid 4♠. I don't have exceptional offense or an exceptional lack of defence. A 5♥ sacrifice might be ok if they bid to 4♠ knowing what they're doing, but having made them guess at the four level I don't want to throw away the gains on the times they guess wrong.

[dake50]

May I have a fit-jump 4C? Or psych a splinter jump?
Not that I would, but I'd consider them.

[Lobowolf]

4♥, and no further action. Guess first, and guess once.

[shevek]

So 4♥ then pass is mainstream.

I have a slight issue with this, playing a strong club system. Because responder will bid 4♥ on a wide range of hands, opener will be loathe to save in front of partner, catering for the trapping high card raise. With,

♠x  ♥AKxxx  ♦xx  ♣AJxxx

opener may think he has no business at the 5-level.
If he knew 4♥ was always high ODR, he would save at the vul. Of course, this conflicts with the clear benefits of frequently jumping to game opposite a limit opening.

[Jlall]

Shevek,

Maybe start playing that 1H p 4H 4S X shows a hand that wants to go to the 5 level opposite a normal preempt but allows partner to pass the double with a random balanced GF or whatever like a lot of strong club pairs play. I think you will like that.

Aside from that it doesn't make much sense to avoid jumping to 4M because it has a wide range. That is the whole point! You create a guessing game that is beneficial to your side. If you don't want to bid 4M with this hand because it will be hard for partner to judge then you probably don't want to bid it with any preemptive hands that are based on long trumps and weak values. In that case your 4M bid is more well defined, but you are definitely losing out because a well defined stronger range will help the opponents, and you won't be able to put any pressure on with this type of hand.

[shevek]

Jlall, on Oct 26 2009, 07:45 PM, said:

Shevek,

Maybe start playing that 1H p 4H 4S X shows a hand that wants to go to the 5 level opposite a normal preempt but allows partner to pass the double with a random balanced GF or whatever like a lot of strong club pairs play. I think you will like that.

I like that Justin! Pass-double inversion.