[TimG]

mtvesuvius, on Mar 6 2009, 12:15 PM, said:

I did a simulation for when partner has 11-14 HCP and 5-8♥, 0-4♠, 0-5♦ and 0-5♣. Out of 3000 deals, 48% made 10+ tricks, and 84% made 9+ tricks in ♥ played by North. This seems to say that we have 3 level safety, and hopefully with most hands that we can make game on, partner will accept on.

Edit: I was just looking back to the sim. and NO hands took less than 7 tricks, 54 took 12 tricks, and 11 hands took all 13.

I think you want to filter out hands that will obviously accept an invite from partner (or that will obviously move over a single raise). It doesn't really matter how often game will make on those hands because you're getting there anyway.

[jdonn]

Phil, on Mar 6 2009, 10:38 AM, said:

hrothgar, on Mar 6 2009, 10:32 AM, said:

One comment about the Bergen raise followed by 4♥ plan:

You could end up VERY badly positioned if partner tanks over the Bergen raise...

In which case I will pull out my trusty system notes to show the director that a Bergen Raise may include delayed game raises.

That won't help you at all. Do your notes say you were intending to force to game on this specific hand?

But I agree with those who aren't concerned partner will hesitate. A good partner can make these decisions quickly, and in any case if they find themself having tanked due to a close decision they will just bid game. Good point by han that the same 'problem' exists in common auctions such as 1♥ (2♦) 3♦ (P) ?.

[ASkolnick]

Actually that auction becomes slightly clearer, since without a diamond raise, your 3 dead holding in diamonds could be a deciding factor in your bidding.

3-5-3-2 is a lot different than 3-5-2-3 in this auction, but not really over non-interference.

[Phil]

hanp, on Mar 6 2009, 10:52 AM, said:

Phil, on Mar 6 2009, 10:38 AM, said:

hrothgar, on Mar 6 2009, 10:32 AM, said:

One comment about the Bergen raise followed by 4♥ plan:

You could end up VERY badly positioned if partner tanks over the Bergen raise...

In which case I will pull out my trusty system notes to show the director that a Bergen Raise may include delayed game raises.

This would be not so relevant, it doesn't show that you were already planning to bid 4 and I doubt it will be clear that that was already your plan. If it was a clear GF you wouldn't have bid a Bergen raise.

But there are many siimilar situations where partner's slow sign off puts you in a difficult situation. For example after 1H-(2D) - 3D, if partner bids a slow 3H then you have a problem if you have a close hand. But I don't think a good partner needs to think very long in these situations.

This would be a very good case of the 'flight-plans' we've discussed at the six level over grand slam tries and partner's out of tempo response.

In other words, if you can just alert your screenmate (if applicable) of your intention to proceed to game, it takes pressure off.