[jtfanclub]

mikestar, on Feb 11 2008, 02:04 PM, said:

Very good analysis, Wayne. If spades is a poor moysian, it will be because they have the hearts and lead them. Bidding 1♠ may shut out the heart bid that makes it more likely for them to lead hearts, so at least sometimes we will steal it in a 4-3 spade fit when they lead clubs.

Most people can show a 4+ card suit after 1♦ 1♠ without so much as getting the level higher. 1♠ isn't even going to slow them down.

1NT has at least a little pre-emptive effect.

[han]

To the other doublers, what do you do if it goes p-1H-p next?

[mikeh]

I opted for 1♠, and the 'arguments' of the doublers haven't persuaded me otherwise.

Nothing is perfect, but:

1. I double and bid 1♠ over 1♥, the most probable response and certainly a response for which I have to be prepared. He will often overbid now, especially with xxx in spades, which he will think is great support for a suit that is always 5 good and usually 6+ in length.

What if he bids 2♥ (over the double)? Now, we have the values for game, altho we may not have enough tricks... and how do we resolve denomination issues over 2♥? Bid 2♠? Bid 3♣?

2. I bid 1♠. Worst case scenario is that he passes and we are in the wrong suit. It seems vanishingly unlikely that he will pass 1♠ with any hand on which 4♠ is good. He may pass when 3N from his side is best, or when we have a diamond partial... but double won't get us to the diamond partial when he also has 4 hearts. Even when 1♠ is 'wrong', the opps may rescue us, via a negative double, a 1N bid on our left or a reopening on our right (altho p p x leaves me awkwardly placed)

And if partner will bid 1N over our double, he will bid 1N over our 1♠

Now, admittedly, I would be (more) comfortable with my choice if we played transfer advances, because partner can advance to 2 red on weak hands with long suits: if he has 6+ hearts and a weak hand, he may well transfer and I will jump accept.

BTW, for me, 1♦ is the 4th choice: I place them as 1♠ 100, 1N 80 double 70 1♦ 60.

[han]

Especially agree with Justin that Dbl-p-2H is not a problem auction.

[mikeh]

Justin:

I think that most experts tend towards the Kokish style of wide-range overcalls these days, so that with 16 hcp and a 5 card spade suit with only decent cards in the suit, and short(ish) hearts, most experts would vote for either 1♠ or 1N, depending on the rest of the hand. Thus I think that most (but not all) experts these days would expect either good spades or a decent 6 card suit. This is not the same as saying that double then spades GUARANTEES those holdings: just that I think most experts would expect their partner's next call to be based on that expectation.

Next, I did not say that the chances of missing game after 1♠ were vanishingly small: I said that the chances of missing 4♠ were vanishingly small, and I suspect that you'd agree with me on that.

Obviously, 1♠ poses a much greater risk of missing 3N, whereas double enhances the chances of finding it. However, is it clear that partner will look for 3N after your double then spades if partner has, for example, a 3=5=2=3 hand, or even a 3=4=3=3 hand, since he will usually feel constrained to raise with a modest hand (which he announces via 1♥) and support and enough to bid again?

So it is not as if double then spades is a panacea in terms of finding 3N.

As for finding diamonds, your points are valid.

I do think the decision is close, and while I have scored the choices in my order of preference, I don't think that any of them is a 'mistake', altho I really (personally) don't like diamonds, primarily because I am not going to be happy if LHO bids 1♥ and partner passes.. I may never be able to find spades safely.

BTW, as to a 2♥ response not being a problem.... I think you are underestimating the problems after your proposed 3♣ call when partner can't bid notrump. What is he to do with a 9 count 3=4=3=3, for example? My guess is he rebids his hearts.... admittedly, we are now looking at so many hcp that even the 4=2 is probably safe when he lacks even the Q of clubs And maybe, given our strength, I am worrying too much about a minor possibility.

[han]

Quote

BTW, as to a 22♥ response not being a problem.... I think you are underestimating the problems after your proposed 33♣ call when partner can't bid notrump. What is he to do with a 9 count 3=4=3=3, for example? My guess is he rebids his hearts.... admittedly, we are now looking at so many hcp that even the 4=2 is probably safe when he lacks even the Q of clubs cool.gif And maybe, given our strength, I am worrying too much about a minor possibility.

So he'll bid 3H and we bid 3S. Since 2S would have been forcing this is not how ones bids with a good 5-card suit. I think partner should have a decent stab at the best game.

[cherdano]

I am not sure I understand how Kokish got into the discussion. I thought the Kokish school teaches to refuse to double with strong unbalanced hands unless they are really huge, so when a Kokish-advocate doubles and bids, isn't he more likely to be balanced?

[mikeh]

cherdano, on Feb 11 2008, 07:17 PM, said:

I am not sure I understand how Kokish got into the discussion. I thought the Kokish school teaches to refuse to double with strong unbalanced hands unless they are really huge, so when a Kokish-advocate doubles and bids, isn't he more likely to be balanced?

No: if kokish doubled and bid, he either has a great hand and a great suit or a stupendous hand and a good suit: at least, this is how I expect him to bid, and I have both played against him and been coached by him (and, of course, have read years of his entries and directing comments in the BW).

So, while I am not claiming that I know what he would do on the hand, I am claiming that I very strongly expect that he, as advancer, would bid on the basis that we had at least 5 good spades plus a great hand if we doubled and bid 1♠.

My guess is that Kokish would, on the hand, bid 1N I would expect 1♠ as the second choice for Eric.

[whereagles]

I still fail to see what the problem is with dbl + 1NT (over pd's 1♥)..............

[helene_t]

whereagles, on Feb 12 2008, 12:22 PM, said:

I still fail to see what the problem is with dbl + 1NT (over pd's 1♥)..............

I'm sure you have heard about the idea that a notrump bid by the partner behind the opp who bid suit shows a stopper. You may think it's a silly idea but I'm sure you've heard about it.

[whereagles]

yeah, I've heard of it and think it's silly. Bull's-eye for you

To have a stopper might make sense at the 2 or 3 level, but at the 1 level it's more important to show shape/strength.

[jtfanclub]

whereagles, on Feb 12 2008, 05:51 AM, said:

yeah, I've heard of it and think it's silly. Bull's-eye for you

To have a stopper might make sense at the 2 or 3 level, but at the 1 level it's more important to show shape/strength.

And you have 18 points and balanced, which is...not X plus 1NT. It's just 1NT.

Yeah, you have lots of controls. You also have no club stopper, no 5 card suit, and no assurance of a fit. I think that an X followed by 1NT shows a hand with a lot more power than you have - a hand that can make game across a random 5 count. Even if your partner has, say, the KQJx of clubs and no other points, it's not going to help. Then they'll find the heart lead, and you'll be down.

I'm not sure what I'd do at the table. I expect 1NT to be successful in match points, going for -50 or -100 when the opponents have 110 or so. In IMPs, I'd be tempted to X and pass 1♥, figuring that the opps will save us (as they so often do at my level).

[whereagles]

jtfanclub, on Feb 12 2008, 03:49 PM, said:

And you have 18 points and balanced, which is...not X plus 1NT. It's just 1NT.

It depends on how strict you want 1NT overcalls to be. If you're playing 16-18 or 15-bad 18, then yeah it's a 1NT overcall.

[skjaeran]

mikeh, on Feb 11 2008, 11:17 PM, said:

BTW, for me, 1♦ is the 4th choice: I place them as 1♠ 100, 1N 80 double 70 1♦ 60.

That's about how I feel about this too.

[Echognome]

Ok, so I'm just gonna say what happened at the table and only make a half-hearted attempt at justifying it. I agree with many posters that there are a variety of actions, all of which could work out or not. So I took an action that no one has even considered... I passed. So let me give my quick two cents on this.

Yes we have a great hand. Yes it's possible that pass can work out horribly. But we have an opening bid on our right, so it's entirely possible that the hand isn't ours. Pass gives up competing for the part-score admittedly and we do have two suits outside of clubs that we'd like to compete in. Heck, we even have a decent dummy for clubs. So the idea I had was if it went (1C) - P - (1H) - P; (2H) - ? Now I would double back in (not as ideal a hand as is typically shown, but certainly describes it decently).

Anyway, what actually happened was it went: (1C) - P - (1NT) - AP. And as the play unfolded, declarer took a line of play that didn't expect me to have an 18 count and pass throughout! (I was lucky in a sense that the actual declarer would notice my high card points.)

I'm not advocating that pass is the best bid (I think personally the doublers have convinced me), but I think it's interesting that no one has even considered it.