[pclayton]

rogerclee, on Feb 11 2008, 01:11 PM, said:

Let's say I pull to 2S. LHO has to make a 2-level penalty double with his trumps in front of the strong hand while his partner has promised nothing more than an 11-count with 3 hearts. Sure, he might hit this, but I'd say it's sort of unlikely.

If you don't double with a max 1N and KQJx of spades, you'll never dbl 2♠ in this sequence.

[han]

I also think KQJx is very unlikely. I think partner will often have something like a 17-count with a good spade suit, AQ10xxx is certainly possible. In that case I expect 2S to survive reasonably well and 1NT to make easily.

So I would pull for sure.

[cherdano]

There is no reason to expect trumps to break badly, 2S seems clear.

[han]

Well, there was this 1NT call so there is some reason to expect spades on your left. But I agree that there is no reason for spades to break *this* badly.

[rogerclee]

pclayton, on Feb 11 2008, 04:22 PM, said:

If you don't double with a max 1N and KQJx of spades, you'll never dbl 2♠ in this sequence.

I meant that I don't always catch KQJx of spades in LHO's hand. I agree that on this deal, you were very, very likely going to get nailed in 2♠.

[mikeh]

I would have pulled, and while I sympathize with the pass, I would very much like to see the hand that doubled 1N, with at best A10xxx(x) in spades and warning signs everywhere. To me, the double strongly suggests interest in defending, based in part of the expectation of scoring lot of spade tricks, especially if partner has an entry... with which it would almost always be right not to pull. So AJ109xx and a good hand is the sort of suit I'd expect (if not better).

[pclayton]

Jlall, on Feb 11 2008, 01:29 PM, said:

2S, why would you expect to get doubled? You have close to half the deck and an 8 card fit.

I suppose if I bid 2♠ confidently enough it will be evident we have an 8 card fit

[han]

OK, this has to be the greatest plurality in history.

[jchiu]

han, on Feb 12 2008, 04:19 AM, said:

OK, this has to be the greatest plurality in history.

38-3 in the bottom of the sixth inning, we're going to find a mercy rule to stop the bleeding now ...

[benlessard]

Quote

I would have pulled, and while I sympathize with the pass, I would very much like to see the hand that doubled 1N, with at best A10xxx(x) in spades and warning signs everywhere. To me, the double strongly suggests interest in defending, based in part of the expectation of scoring lot of spade tricks, especially if partner has an entry... with which it would almost always be right not to pull. So AJ109xx and a good hand is the sort of suit I'd expect (if not better).

Agree but i say better is what my X show & i surely dont expect partner to have an entry. Each month if not each week i see a "B" player say "yeah but i had 19 pts how could i pass ?" Clearly for me the X by north hand and see they make 2 overtrick or that we go down 2 in 2S is a clear sign that its a "B player bid"

The main reason to take action over 1Nt in imps is "they are making 1Nt and we make something." more often then 1Nt go down and we make nothing. Partscore bidding in imps is taking the action that is more likely to give you a plus score whatever plus. So taking direct action over 1Nt mean you have some chance to make 2S facing 2 trumps or that you have fair chance to make 2m (while expecting 1Nt to make)
Remember bidding isnt over yet and partner would have or will raise to 2S with 3S and any ruffing power.

2- "Its possible we can make a game so a small plus in 1Nt going down isnt enough" If opps frequently psych or respond light to steal then its make sense to X or to make a 1Nt natural overcall because game is possible.

So unless some1 else can find another intelligent reason to bid over 1Nt why the F%^* would i want to bid over 1Nt with a 6322 or a 53(32) & 18-19 pts.

Taking action after opps bid and respond and endup in 1nt with a balanced hand rarely make sense .

[the hog]

benlessard, on Feb 12 2008, 04:10 AM, said:

Those who think its impossible to have 20-22 and make an overcall would you X and bid 2S with

AKQJx
Axx
QXX
KQ ?

After

(1X)----P-----(1Y)------???

its not balancing and expect partner to be broke when you have 18 +
So why would you want to X 1Nt with 18-19 pts ?
Why would you want to X and bid a new suit with 20-22 pts and a balanced hand ?

Im not saying i expect to get rich by defending 1Nt just that why be sure to get a minus when you might get a +. If they make an overtrick then partner made a mistake not you.

Of course I would double with this hand and not overcall 1S. Some players will not have their opening bid for whatever reason. Some players will bid 1Y with nothing. Do you simply give up and die because the opps bid, or do you give your partner a chance to trust you?

[benlessard]

With normal opponents what do you think is more likely ?

1 - that you will bid and make game that you wouldnt have been able to reach if you had overcall 1S ? (When X and bid 2S will win Imps over a simple 1S overcall)

2- That you go down in 2S while you had a plus score in 1S or by defending a contract ? (Where a simple overcall and defending will win Imps over a X and 2S)

I agree that there is a limit to trusting the opponents but bridge is all about probability and inference. Each time the opps psych or respond with 3 pts there are risking on their side even if you do nothing about it so you dont really need to punish them/expose the psych every time. Of course if the opps play limited opening or LOB or system that allow them to steal with little risk its a complete different story.