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My usual reasoning on this sort of hand is that there are two possibilities where we can beat the contract:
(1) It's a race, and we need to get our tricks before they get theirs.
(2) They just don't have enough tricks, so we don't want to give them trick twelve.
In case (1), we need to establish a trick. But any lead except trumps could do this -- a spade lead will be right if partner has ♠Q, or a club lead if partner has ♣K, or a diamond lead if partner has ♦Q. I don't think any of these suits is really much more likely to be right than the others. It seems likely that LHO has some sort of control in clubs and diamonds, so any one of these cards partner has is going to be properly positioned. I don't think it's somehow "much more likely" that partner has ♠Q rather than ♣K. It seems like case (1) is pretty much just a guess.
However in case (2), leading away from an honor is much more likely to give trick twelve than leading from small cards.
Putting these together, I'd lead a club. Then again, I seem to be much more a fan of passive leads than most players.
From Bermuda Bowl USA1 vs. SA
#21
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Posted 2007-October-11, 23:23
Adam W. Meyerson
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit
#22
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Posted 2007-October-11, 23:39
jdonn, on Oct 11 2007, 10:47 PM, said:
cherdano, on Oct 11 2007, 11:41 PM, said:
jdonn, on Oct 11 2007, 05:35 PM, said:
I have no strong opinion since I'm biased anyway from watching the hand. But it seems to me like the opponents have found a way to rightside the spades after my double, so I'm not at all keen on that lead any more (it would obviously be the normal lead otherwise.) So I like to think I would have found a club, but really I don't know.
Partner didn't need KQ btw, just K
Partner didn't need KQ btw, just K
What makes you think they right-sided it? RHO pretty much had no choice except to bid 6H.
Several things make me think that. But my biggest clue during the auction is that the one who passed over the double did have a choice. And my biggest clue after is that they did in fact rightside, which there is some finite chance happened on purpose.
Let me say it differently. If the opponents have the ♠Q, then obviously they have right-sided it. If they don't, then they couldn't. But we knew already that the spade lead works when partner has the queen and won't work otherwise.
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
#23
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Posted 2007-October-12, 07:36
jdonn, on Oct 12 2007, 12:47 AM, said:
cherdano, on Oct 11 2007, 11:41 PM, said:
jdonn, on Oct 11 2007, 05:35 PM, said:
I have no strong opinion since I'm biased anyway from watching the hand. But it seems to me like the opponents have found a way to rightside the spades after my double, so I'm not at all keen on that lead any more (it would obviously be the normal lead otherwise.) So I like to think I would have found a club, but really I don't know.
Partner didn't need KQ btw, just K
Partner didn't need KQ btw, just K
What makes you think they right-sided it? RHO pretty much had no choice except to bid 6H.
Several things make me think that. But my biggest clue during the auction is that the one who passed over the double did have a choice. And my biggest clue after is that they did in fact rightside, which there is some finite chance happened on purpose.
The opps would have chosen to make opener declarer regardless of which of the other 3 players at the table has the ♠Q, so we can take no inference from that.