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Bidding plan Do you have judgement?

#1 User is offline   paulg 

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Posted 2006-February-02, 16:42

Scoring: IMP

(Pass) - 1 - (2) - ?

As Fred has said in a couple of threads recently, judgement is more valuable than a complex system. I'm a competent player but feel that my judgement is often poor, especially on wild hands.

This hand, from the recent (English) National Swiss Teams, bothered me at the time and still does now. Were my actions bad, poor or normal?

So we start with the first part of the problem - do you double (negative) or bid 3 (forcing)? How much do you worry about partner's next action in selecting your bid?

p

PS Your system is 5-card majors, 14-16NT. Opposition are on the same score as you after 10 rounds, so are presumably competent too even though you don't know them. As you gave the field a 3 match start but are unbeaten since then, you believe you are probably more competent :P

PPS I am noticing a disturbing similarity between sceptic and me (his mentor) in only posting our bad hands!

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I don't work for BBO and any advice is based on my BBO experience over the decades
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#2 User is offline   Kalvan14 

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Posted 2006-February-02, 16:47

Double: I'm not strong enough to invoke a GF, and the spade misfit is troubling.
I will not be surprised if pard rebids 4
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#3 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2006-February-02, 16:47

I bid 3D. I don't recall ever making a neg X with 5-5 or 6-5 when I had enough strength to freebid.
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#4 User is offline   Kalvan14 

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Posted 2006-February-02, 16:51

True, but your strength is a bit suspicious. Are you going to play in a minor 100%, or are you going to pass when (if, sorry) partner rebids spades at high level?
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#5 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2006-February-02, 16:56

That's part of the reason I bid 3D. If pard bids spades to the moon I will feel comfortable. If I make a negative X, he will never expect a void so I will feel uncomfortable when he keeps bidding spades (but would still have to pass). But the main reason is if the opponents keep bidding, I want to get my suits in. Starting with a X is not a good start to showing this much distribution. Even if the auction goes 1S 2H X p 2S p ? I have a problem. If I bid 3D, it doesn't show a hand as good as this. However, I do share your concern about the spade void. Bidding 3D can definitely get us too high, but X will too usually (unless I elect to underbid later).
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#6 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2006-February-02, 17:03

I agree with Justin here. If we Double and LHO raises to some level, and partner bids through the roof in , is there any way to show our 6-5 minor hand?
"It may be rude to leave to go to the bathroom, but it's downright stupid to sit there and piss yourself" - blackshoe
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#7 User is offline   fred 

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Posted 2006-February-02, 17:06

I think it is clear to bid 3.

Besides the reasons expressed by Jlall, making a negative double will endplay you over 2 of partner's most likely rebids (2 and 2NT). What are you supposed to do after that given that 3 would be non-forcing? Even if partner bids 3 of a minor in response to your negative double, you are not going to be able to convince him that you have a hand like this. The only way to do that is to start bidding your suits immediately.

A negative double is a question, not a statement. This hand calls for making a statement.

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#8 User is offline   Kalvan14 

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Posted 2006-February-02, 20:06

2 and 2NT would no be at the top of my worries (in particular 2NT). 3 (or 4) would be worse. I am not convinced that there is a game in a hand where we are likely in misfit.
Let's see the other way around: 3-3-4-4: a reasonable auction.
We can either play 4 (I'd expect that partner has 7 cards, but...) or complete the 2-suiter disclosure with 5 (only this time partner has 7 cards in spades, 1 diamond and 2 clubs).
IMO, it is pretty close, and at the table I might go either way (depending on a more pessimistic or optimistic mood, I suppose). I am just surprised that there is this complete consensus on invoking a GF on these values and a certain misfit in partner's best suit.
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#9 User is offline   MickyB 

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Posted 2006-February-02, 20:19

Not much to add, but I think 3 is clear. Can't think why I wouldn't just bid out my shape.
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#10 User is offline   HeartA 

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Posted 2006-February-03, 02:14

Jlall, on Feb 2 2006, 05:47 PM, said:

I bid 3D. I don't recall ever making a neg X with 5-5 or 6-5 when I had enough strength to freebid.

no other choice, imo.
Senshu
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#11 User is offline   Miron 

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Posted 2006-February-03, 02:25

3, I have well placed K and only 5 loosing tricks. The void in spades is unpleasant, but I need just one minor. So he has to have 7-3-1-2 to be without minor fit (6-4-1-2 is not probably with the 2 overcall). And if he hes weak spades (or a strong hand) there will be some slam (after I show 6-5 in minors).
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#12 User is offline   paulg 

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Posted 2006-February-03, 04:21

Due to a misguided concern that I'd never be able to show both suits, I doubled to try and get them both in - clearly mistake #1.

Anyhow, the rest of you would have seen the auction continue as follows:

Scoring: IMP

(Pass) - 1 - (2) - 3
(3) - 3NT - (4) - ?


A slightly surprising turn of affairs, but it's your turn again.

p
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I don't work for BBO and any advice is based on my BBO experience over the decades
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#13 User is offline   Miron 

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Posted 2006-February-03, 04:32

5. Partner has (most probably) A, that's good news. Let him select the trumps, he can also decide whether he wants to play slam.
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#14 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2006-February-03, 13:04

3D looks good, now it seems like I have only winning calls available. Double will give us a decent score, and 5C will likely lead us to a making game. I think that it is very close, the spade void asks for a double, but I vote for 5C since I am on lead.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#15 User is offline   luis 

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Posted 2006-February-03, 13:44

First question I bid 3
Second question I bid 5
The legend of the black octogon.
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#16 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2006-February-03, 14:04

5C
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#17 User is offline   dougbennion 

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Posted 2006-February-03, 14:20

Isn't there a good case for making 2NT takeout in that position? With some flattish 11-12 count you can start with a double.

I'd bid 2NT and blame pard if he took it as natural.
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#18 User is offline   paulg 

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Posted 2006-February-04, 06:58

The full hand was:

Scoring: IMP

(Pass) - 1 - (2) - 3
(3) - 3NT - (4) ...


The lunatic bidding of the opponents has made the grand difficult to bid, but at least most of you are bidding (at least) the small slam.

Thanks for your help,

p
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#19 User is offline   000002 

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Posted 2006-February-05, 06:34

oh, the fallacy is becoming truth.

To show the whole instead of the portion,WC player ever warned us more than 1000 in the whole 999 times .
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