NAOP - Hand 2 Lead Problem
#1
Posted 2005-December-18, 22:18
Against Joe Kivel / Chris Larsen you pick up: ♠K982, ♥QT83, ♦102, ♣852.
Pard opens 1♦, Kivel overcalls 1♠. You pass (I don't want to hear the arguments for a negative double, thank you). 1N on left by Chris and Kivel closes out the bidding with 2♠.
What is your opening lead?
#2
Posted 2005-December-18, 22:23
pclayton, on Dec 18 2005, 11:18 PM, said:
Against Joe Kivel / Chris Larsen you pick up: ♠K982, ♥QT83, ♦102, ♣852.
Pard opens 1♦, Kivel overcalls 1♠. You pass (I don't want to hear the arguments for a negative double, thank you). 1N on left by Chris and Kivel closes out the bidding with 2♠.
What is your opening lead?
Congrats on your lead in a very tough field. Win baby!
Ten of D
Agree no neg x.
Must admit no second choice of lead popped up for me. Congrats to those who found a winning one.
#3
Posted 2005-December-18, 23:23
pclayton, on Dec 18 2005, 11:18 PM, said:
Against Joe Kivel / Chris Larsen you pick up: ♠K982, ♥QT83, ♦102, ♣852.
Pard opens 1♦, Kivel overcalls 1♠. You pass (I don't want to hear the arguments for a negative double, thank you). 1N on left by Chris and Kivel closes out the bidding with 2♠.
What is your opening lead?
T♦ for me -- trump clearly seems wrong; see no need to lead ♥ and ♣ seem pointless....
Atul
#4
Posted 2005-December-19, 00:35
1♠ (east six, me four, 1NT bidder 2... )
5♦ - depends upon if he opens 1♦ or 1♣ with 4-4, but if he was 1-4-4-4 i think he would double 1NT anyway.
3♣ - if partner was 5♦=5♣ or even 5♦=4♣ he is likely to have bid 2♣ over 1NT. Of course with ugly clubs, he would pass 1NT
4♥... he has 9 cards in other suits.
Ok, couple issues here. Partner could have six diamonds, and he could have four weak clubs, and partner might have 2 ♠s. In anycase, I am not leading a diamond, with four trumps I have no desire to ruff (yes trump promotion with ♠98is possible if we attack diamonds). I want to to force EAST to ruff, not me. Partner either has four hearts or good hearts and weak clubs. I attack with a ♥ (here ♥8).
#5
Posted 2005-December-19, 00:45
inquiry, on Dec 19 2005, 01:35 AM, said:
1♠ (east six, me four, 1NT bidder 2... )
5♦ - depends upon if he opens 1♦ or 1♣ with 4-4, but if he was 1-4-4-4 i think he would double 1NT anyway.
3♣ - if partner was 5♦=5♣ or even 5♦=4♣ he is likely to have bid 2♣ over 1NT. Of course with ugly clubs, he would pass 1NT
4♥... he has 9 cards in other suits.
Ok, couple issues here. Partner could have six diamonds, and he could have four weak clubs, and partner might have 2 ♠s. In anycase, I am not leading a diamond, with four trumps I have no desire to ruff (yes trump promotion with ♠98is possible if we attack diamonds). I want to to force EAST to ruff, not me. Partner either has four hearts or good hearts and weak clubs. I attack with a ♥ (here ♥8).
ya I thought of tapping in hearts on this bidding, the problem is Rosenberg's advice of not leading from Queens at suit contracts, overruled it for me. Congrats to those that thought deep at the table under pressure.
#6
Posted 2005-December-19, 00:51
Ben's analysis seems strange to me. Why would opener double 1NT with a minimum opening bid, opposite a partner who has basically denied holding four hearts (well, unless he holds a real dog of a hand as we do here)? Why can't 1NT bidder hold a singleton spade (certainly I would bid 1NT with most hands including about 8-11 hcp and a diamond stopper, including many 1(345) shapes)? Certainly a heart lead could be right (or wrong) independent of this reasoning of course.
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit
#7
Posted 2005-December-19, 00:59
Surley any lead could work out well or badly. But clubs look bad because of no club bid, and to me, hearts look better because of my holding in this suit, and because of no club bid.
#8
Posted 2005-December-19, 04:15
awm, on Dec 19 2005, 07:51 AM, said:
I agree with Adam but since this lead will be popular, I suppose this is not the good one
Alain
#9
Posted 2005-December-19, 04:23
Ten of Diamond, trying to start a
forcing defence - fighting for trump
controll, it is a long way, but what
else?
Neg. Double would not have crossed my
mind, if feeling enterprising, try 1NT, at least
you will be playing the hand yourself, but Pass
seems the boring normal action.
Marlowe
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
#10
Posted 2005-December-19, 05:02
#11
Posted 2005-December-19, 05:46
#12
Posted 2005-December-19, 06:08
I agree with Ben's comments that we want declarer ruffing in hand. With this said, we know that the Diamond lead is through strength. The Heart lead looks like it could easily blow a trick.
#13
Posted 2005-December-19, 06:57
Fluffy, on Dec 19 2005, 11:46 AM, said:
Actually, the heart TEN might be better, a surronding play, just in case the suit breaks something like
#14
Posted 2005-December-19, 07:46
If decalrer has the AQJTxx of Spades (non unreasonable since he rebid his unsupported suit), he can take all but one of your Spades.
I can see the argument for Hearts, but I will lead the 10 of diamonds. Finesse through dummy
#15
Posted 2005-December-19, 11:42
#16
Posted 2005-December-19, 11:59
I led the ♥8. At the time, I thought we could force declarer in hearts (fallacy), but there are considerations about setting up our side tricks too.
1. 8♥, 2, KING, 4
2. 9♥, J, Q, ACE
3. 3♠, 6, Q, 2
Note: You could win here, but it seemed at the time I'd rather find out a little more about the hand before I won the spade.
4. K♣, 8, 2, 6
5. ♣, 5, Q, ACE
6. ♥, ruffed, 3, 5
7. A♠, 8, 3, 3♦
8. Q♠, KING, 4♣, 5♦. The position is now:
Now what?
#17
Posted 2005-December-19, 13:05
If declarer has Axx or Kxx in diamonds, he's due to score one diamond trick no matter what. Even if we force declarer to ruff a heart, he can cash a trump pitching a diamond, and lead a diamond to the queen. He's out of trumps but the dummy has a club stop. If declarer has Jxx in diamonds, then leading a diamond now will get us three tricks (two diamonds plus a ruff) whereas any other play will get only two (diamond to the queen and partner will be forced to either give a club trick or lead diamonds from hand allowing declarer's jack to score). If declarer has AJx or KJx in diamonds, he will always score two diamond tricks (or a diamond and a club). The only interesting diamond holding besides Jxx seems to be AJ9 precisely. With this holding a lead of the diamond ten costs a trick, since declarer will cover in dummy and score three diamond tricks, when he was entitled to only two.
So I believe the ♦2 is the best double-dummy play. But if declarer really has ♦AJ9, then partner opened on x Kxx Kxxxx Axxx. For me this is not an opening bid... and declarer would also have 15 hcp and might have rebid 3♠. So I will lead the ♦T, because I think this is more likely to clarify the position for partner and help him make the right play.
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit
#19
Posted 2005-December-19, 14:30
#20
Posted 2005-December-22, 10:41
If you really think about pard's hand, you know he's 1=3=5=4 and has turned up with ♠x, ♥K7x, ♦???xx, ♣ATxx. We don't open this pattern with a 10 count, so pard has at least 4 HCP in ♦'s. I also tend not to place him with ♦AKJxx, or possibly ♦AKxxx, since a decent 14 or 15 count is enough to make a TOx of 1N.
Kivel's bidding is likely the same whether he holds a 11 count or a 15 count, although the latter might qualify for a 3♠ rebid holding: ♠AQJTxx, ♥Jx, ♦Axx, ♣Kx.
Lets look at some of the different possible diamond holdings and how we should defend:
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
--------------------
In total, exiting the diamond 10 gets the most tricks with A, B, D and E. Going passive (and not inserting the ♦10 when declarer leads a small one from hand) gets the most in C and E.
I went passive. Brian actually held "D". He was a little steamed, but I don't think he realized how subtle this problem was at the time.